U.S. Export Controls Under Trump 2.0: What to Expect

Since the end of the Biden Administration, the direction of the Trump Administration’s Department of Commerce and Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has been slowly materializing, giving us a glimpse of what U.S. export controls will look like for the next four years.

What to Expect:

• Stricter Enforcement: Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, aims for stricter enforcement and more frequent penalties for export control violations. There will be an expansion of BIS enforcement agents and on-site end-use checks. Existing rules on firearm exports and 600 series items are under review. Expect heightened review of transactions involving China.

• Expansion of BIS Entity List: Landon Heid, nominee for Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, supports expanding the BIS Entity List to include ownership of identified entities, similar to the OFAC “50%” ownership rule. Expect an expansion of entity lists.

• Updates to Controls: Small-scale updates have been made to BIS controls on commercial space goods and semiconductor-related goods. Expect easing of commercial space-related export controls and tightening of semiconductor-related controls.

• Crackdown on Chinese Companies: The Dept. of Commerce and BIS have highlighted the possible export violations of Huawei and DeepSeek. Expect increased legal scrutiny and high-profile investigations on Chinese firms.

• AI Diffusion Rule: The Biden Administration’s AI diffusion rule was recently rescinded after concern from the Trump Administration and key European trade partners. Expect a replacement to this rule.

• Emerging Technologies: Expect an expansion of controls on small node semiconductors and emerging technologies critical to U.S. national security.

What is Still Unclear:

• Proposed Rulemaking Process: Sources state that the BIS intends to discontinue the proposed rulemaking process to speed up rule making. This would eliminate the industry comment period before a rule takes effect. It is unclear if this will happen.

• License Application Reviews: BIS license application reviews have been slow, possibly due to shifting strategy or organizational changes within BIS. It is unclear if longer turnaround times will be the new normal.

• New Licensing Requirements: Certain U.S. companies exporting Ethane or Butane to China have been notified by the Dept. of Commerce of new licensing requirements. The details of the requirements are still unclear.

• Multilateral Export Controls: The BIS plans to streamline the rulemaking process. It is unclear if the new administration will prioritize multilateral export controls, as rulemaking with international partners can be slow paced.